Conservation and Rates Conducted rate studies and financial analyses with numerous wholesale and retail water agencies and utilities nationally. Presented statewide workshops on Conservation Oriented Rate Design and Rates, Revenue, and Conservation. Principals from A & N Technical Services have taught Rate Design, Cost Allocation, and Avoided Cost Analysis at the NARUC Western Water Rate School and NARUC summer workshops during the last six years. Lead the national research team that created the handbook Designing, Evaluating, and Implementing Conservation Rate Structures for the California Urban Water Conservation Council. Conducted day-long workshops on conservation rate structures. Lead and completed the multi-disciplinary tariff design effort combining demand estimation and Monte Carlo simulation: Revenue Instability Induced by Conservation Rate Structures, cosponsored by the American Water Works Association Research Foundation and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

Decision Support Software for Integrated Water Resources Planning Development of IRPSIM decision support software for Integrated Resources Planning. IRPSIM provides a user-friendly front-end for simulating the balance of water demand and supply resources and cash balances between revenues and expenditures. By reducing the cost of enacting simulations, it allows more thorough validation and sensitivity analysis. The underlying stochastic simulation methodology ensures common and consistent treatment of climate, hydrology, revenue, and cost. Development of an original microcomputer software package, MWDFORE©, to assist planners in forecasting water demand and in evaluating the effectiveness of conservation programs. Technical support in the use of MWDFORE© for several Southern California water authorities including the City of Santa Monica, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and the Municipal Water District of Orange County.

Water Resource Economics Developed an Evaluation Decision Methodology (EDM) to assist the Bay Area Regional Water Recycling Program in evaluating water recycling alternatives. The EDM is used to determine both the economic and financial viability of recycling projects for under federal Title XVI andthe state loan programs. Accompanying software, Evaluation Decision Tool, was developed to enact the methodology. Created the Guidelines for the Conduct of Cost Effectiveness Analyses for Best Management Practices for the California Urban Water Conservation Council. Conducted day-long workshops on cost effectiveness analysis. Headed the Conservation Data Team for the Conservation Branch of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. Eight month project resulted in the creation of a spreadsheet-based Program Design Tool© to track and forecast costs and water yield of a conservation program portfolio. The PDT facilitates the quick design and redesign of a set of programs and is in use throughout Southern California. Headed the research team providing technical support on the role of Conservation in the Integrated Resources Plan for Southern California. Participated in the negotiation of the Memorandum of Understanding that created the California Urban Water Conservation Council.

Statistical Impact Evaluation of Water Conservation Programs Performed impact evaluations for the following agencies: Capistrano Valley, Eastern Municipal, and Otay Water Districts (Landscape Conservation Programs: Water-Budget Based Rate Structures). Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (Residential Retrofit Pilot in Westchester, ULFT Retrofit Program, and Residential Home Survey Program). Irvine Ranch Water District (Residential Retrofit and Survey, Landscape Conservation Rate Structures). The City of Santa Monica (ULF Toilet Rebate Program) City of San Diego (Residential Survey Program, Public Facilities Retrofit Program) Methods used for these impact evaluations include statistical models of individual household water demand based on customer billing system records of water use over a multiple year period and a customer-specific survey (mail, phone, or in-person).

Water Use Efficiency Evaluated conservation programs in Southern California during year four of the recent drought (summer 1990). The study involved the separate estimation and tracking of conservation rates for eleven municipal water agencies. Evaluated the effectiveness of conservation measures undertaken by Southern California municipalities during the summer of 1988. The study involved the periodic estimation of conservation rates for five municipal water authorities. Results were presented weekly during a television campaign to encourage conservation. Critically reviewed existing approaches to evaluating water conservation programs for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California.

Water Supply and Demand Modeling Determinants of Water Demand in the City of Phoenix. A study of the determinates of water demand in the City of Phoenix, Ariz. Involved estimation of a simultaneous equation model of daily water demand using daily adjusted-production by the City system. Development of a systems model of local and imported water supply and urban and agricultural water demand in Southern California for the regions Integrated Resources Plan. Study to determine why per capita domestic water consumption in Southern California is increasing. Development of price elasticity estimates for water demand in Southern California and design of an agenda for future research on the topic. Development of time-series models of Colorado River Water diversions for four California agricultural districts. The models were incorporated into microcomputer-based tools to facilitate sensitivity analyses. Design of a "Monte Carlo" simulation methodology to quantify uncertainty surrounding forecasts of municipal and agricultural water demand in Southern California. Development of a simultaneous equation approach to modeling imported water use that incorporates the "leveraging" effect of drought conditions on demand for imported water by increasing overall demand while at the same time reducing the supply of locally available water. Development of "second generation" models of Colorado River Water agricultural diversions that involve sophisticated treatment of model error and Monte Carlo simulation techniques to evaluate forecast uncertainty.

A & N Technical Services Inc. * San Diego, Los Angeles * US *